Crypto Writer
Arslan Butt
Crypto Writer
Arslan Butt
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Bitcoin has dropped to $113,400, down over 2.75% in the last 24 hours as the market adjusts to a key technical shift. After weeks of consolidating in an ascending triangle, the price has broken below the structure, sending a warning to traders who had been watching $115K as support.
The breakdown also takes Bitcoin below the 50-day SMA at $115,870, which is now resistance.
This follows a rejection at $124,450, where a bearish engulfing candle capped a 4-week rally. That reversal has changed the short-term bias from bullish continuation to corrective pullback, so the question is, can Bitcoin hold here, or is a deeper drop ahead?
Head-And-Shoulders Risks Grow
The daily chart shows a head-and-shoulders pattern with neckline support at $112,000. A clean break below this line could accelerate to $108,000 with an extended target at $105,150. The candles look cautious – multiple strong bearish candles are forming like the early stages of a three-crows pattern, which means sustained downside momentum.
Technical indicators confirm this view. MACD has gone negative, and RSI is at 41, which is not oversold yet. There’s room for more downside without a strong bounce.
But the bigger picture isn’t broken. Zooming out, Bitcoin still has a sequence of higher lows since June. Small bodied candles forming at $113K-$114K – dojis and spinning tops – are showing indecision not capitulation.
Path to $130K Still Open
While short-term risks are to the downside, the medium-term outlook is constructive. If buyers come in and take out $116,150, Bitcoin could bounce to $120,900 with a break above $124,450, opening up retests of $127,540 and beyond.
For traders:
- Bullish case: Watch for a bullish engulfing candle above $116,150. That could be a buy signal, targeting $120,900-$124,450 with a stop loss below $112,000.
- Bearish case: A break below $112,000 could be a short, with a target $108,000. Stops should be above $116,000.
Despite near-term selling, institutional buying, and long-term holders are still supportive. Firms like Metaplanet and Strategy are buying during dips, so broader sentiment hasn’t turned bearish.
The next few weeks will be telling. A failure to hold $112,000 could take BTC to $100K, while a break above resistance could get us back to $130K if macro conditions stabilize. For long-term investors, the structural bullish trend is still intact, so this correction is part of the accumulation phase, not the end of the rally.
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