Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback

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Ione WellsBrasília and Hafsa Khalil

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term in office in a dramatic comeback over his right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.

Left-wing leader Lula took 51.79% of votes, becoming the first president since Brazil’s return to civilian rule in 1985 to be elected after losing the first round of voting.

Lula told jubilant crowds his victory was a “loss for negativity, lies”, adding “long live democracy”.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro, has so far refused to recognise the result and called for it to be annulled. World leaders have congratulated Lula on his re-election.

Bolsonaro’s rejection comes as no surprise to observers. His father did the same.

But a challenge appears unlikely to succeed.

Firstly, it seems to centre on the unprecedented decision by the Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin to extend voting nationwide by two hours. Some Bolsonaro fans are pointing out that Zanin was once Lula’s lawyer and alleging bias.

But both teams had requested an extension to voting times – Lula’s had argued that voters in São Paulo and Bahia could not get to the polling stations because of a lack of buses, while Bolsonaro’s campaign cited heavy rain in some areas in the south of the country and in São Paulo as their reason.

Both knew every vote would count and did not want their side to miss out.

The president of the Supreme Electoral Court Kássio Nunes Marques – appointed by Jair Bolsonaro – confirmed Lula’s victory and said that the voter extension did not change the outcome of the race.

The sheer gap between the two candidates’ tallies – 4.4 million votes – makes the result more difficult to challenge.

President Lula extends his right arm, his hand in a fist, as he reacts to his election. He is wearing a blue denim shirt, and has short grey hair and beard.Reuters

The result came as a surprise after Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 October with 47% of votes ahead of Lula’s 45%.

The right-wing candidate had been poised to give a victory speech and said the result should be annulled, calling it “inexplicable”.

But Lula’s camp gained momentum ahead of election day, focusing on boosting voter turnout after 33 million people did not vote in round one.

Sunday saw the largest drop in abstention between the two rounds of a presidential election since 1989.

As disconsolate Bolsonaro supporters left the house in Brasília where their candidate had been watching the result, Lula took to the streets in São Paulo to celebrate and address his supporters.

“This, my fourth term, will be the best of any president in the history of this country,” the former metal worker said. “It will be the one in which I listen most to the Brazilian people.”

Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin told him: “You, for the second time, have saved Brazilian democracy.”

After pulling off this victory, Lula faces big hurdles: a divided country, an opponent that won’t recognise the result, and a hostile Congress packed full of Bolsonaro allies.

Markets reacted negatively to the unexpected outcome. The Sao Paolo stock exchange opened 15% down, sparking a brief suspension before recovering slightly. Interest rate futures rose as investors scrutinised Lula’s fiscal plans.

While US President Donald Trump has yet to react, other world leaders from across the political spectrum have congratulated Lula. Mexico’s left-wing President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a post on X: “The people of Brazil won.”

Peru’s right-wing President Keiko Fujimori praised Brazil’s “democratic day”. Similar messages were shared by the presidents of Chile and Ecuador.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney noted that their two countries had already “flourished under our partnership”.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “democracy and multilateralism” had won. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez – also a left-wing leader – called it a “great victory”.

French President Emmanuel Macron said the two nations should work “in service of a more just world”.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called Lula’s victory one for the “global south and progressive forces throughout the world”.

Bolsonaro standing while holding a wad of paper. He is surrounded by people who do not look happyBloomberg via Getty Images

Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, has already been president for three non-consecutive terms, serving two terms between January 2003 to December 2010, and again from January 2023.

His win makes him the first in Brazilian history to secure a fourth term, which will last until 2030.

But this has been a bitterly fought campaign and the new term – set to start on 5 January – comes amid significant constraints at home and abroad, including animosity from the US president.

Referring to what Trump has called the “Donroe Doctrine” – which seeks to establish US dominance in the Western Hemisphere – Lula used his victory speech to insist that Brazil “will not accept being anyone’s backyard”.

Trump has previously shown support for Bolsonaro’s father Jair, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of a coup attempt after losing the 2022 elections to Lula. Flávio Bolsonaro met Trump at the White House earlier this year to bid for his support.

Lula has also bucked a wider trend in Latin America, where voters in countries such as Argentina, Chile and Colombia have put right-wing candidates and parties in power.