Record January warmth puzzles climate scientists

Mark Poynting

Climate and environment researcher

Reuters Firefighter dressed in full protective clothing, including mask and helmet, with large flames covering the area behind him.Reuters

Last month was the world’s warmest January on record raising further questions about the pace of climate change, scientists say.

January 2025 had been expected to be slightly cooler than January 2024 because of a shift away from a natural weather pattern in the Pacific known as El Niño.

But instead, last month broke the January 2024 record by nearly 0.1C, according to the European Copernicus climate service.

The world’s warming is due to emissions of planet-heating gases from human activities – mainly the burning of fossil fuels – but scientists say they cannot fully explain why last month was particularly hot.

It continues a series of surprisingly large temperature records since mid-2023, with temperatures around 0.2C above what had been expected.

“The basic reason we’re having records being broken, and we’ve had this decades-long warming trend, is because we’re increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” Gavin Schmidt, director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, told BBC News.

“The specifics of exactly why 2023, and 2024, and [the start of] 2025, were so warm, there are other elements involved there. We’re trying to pin those down.”

Bar chart of global average January temperatures between 1940 and 2025. There is a rising trend, and 2025 shows the highest global average temperature of 1.75C, according to the European climate service, just above the previous 2024 record. The hotter the year, the darker shade of red for the bars.

January 2025 ended up 1.75C warmer than January temperatures of the late 19th Century, before humans started significantly warming the climate.

Early last year, global temperatures were being boosted by the natural El Niño weather pattern, where unusually warm surface waters spread across the eastern tropical Pacific. This releases extra heat into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures.