U.S. intelligence reports in August warned that Moscow was planning a limited assault on a NATO country in the coming years. CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned Russian officials in Moscow late last month not to escalate conflict with NATO allies, in particular Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Yet it remains unclear whether the latest warnings are based on fresh intelligence.
On Friday, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Vilnius had “the same intelligence” as Tusk “about a possible foreign-flag operation” but suggested that dated back to July.
“I see the public statements of politicians about this as part of a coordinated campaign to warn Russia not to make stupid decisions and not to try to do something thinking that it will not reach [NATO’s mutual defense clause] Article 5 and will not be washed away,” he said.
Allies have not formally been briefed on any new intelligence inside NATO, according to two alliance diplomats, and NATO has so far not changed its threat assessment.
“At this time, we see no imminent threat of attack,” said a NATO official speaking on behalf of the organization, adding: “But we cannot not be naive or complacent, and we must make sure NATO remains strong in the years ahead.”
